This Week in Asian Conflict… February 1st-8th, 2012.

  • Officials in China clamed separatist plots to attack police and public buildings for clashes that recently led to Tibetan deaths on Wednesday; while residents of a small southern village held a symbolic election that allegedly had a turnout over 80 percent in protest against land grabs and corruption. Officials reportedly cut off mobile and internet connections on Friday to areas where Tibetans were shot dead in unrest last month; while Wang Lijun, a gang-busting police chief who is set to be immortalised on film, was abruptly transferred to more general duties, causing massive online speculation.  On Saturday, American Senator John McCain warned China that “the Arab Spring is coming to China”, highlighting the recent spate of Tibetan self-immolations, though authorities dismissed it as “no more than fantasy” and condemned foreign interference in their internal affairs. On Sunday, three Tibetans in the south-west reportedly set themselves on fire in protest against Chinese rule, the latest in a series of self-immolations over the past year. On Wednesday, the Atlantic ran an article about the massive land grab epidemic in the country and how it is causing more Wukan-style protests; while another ethnic Tibetan reportedly immolated himself protesting against Chinese rule.
  • The civilian death toll for the war in Afghanistan reached a record high last year of 3,021, and a further 4,507 civilians wounded, according to the UN; while the Atlantic ran an interesting article discussing why American President Obama is right to withdraw from the country early. The United States Institute of Peace released a report on Traditional Dispute Resolution and Afghanistan’s Women; while the UN released an opinion survey showing that 8 in 10 Afghans do not think the Afghan National Police are ready to take charge of law and order, with 68 percent allegedly saying foreign troops should stay for now. An editorial in the Guardian suggested the public is repeatedly being told lies when they are told that the Taliban is being pushed back in the country when the truth is that they show no sign of being bombed to the peace table. On Wednesday, the US announced they plan to wind down their war in the country a year or more earlier than scheduled, ending their combat role in 2012; a NATO report suggested that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, vows to retake Afghanistan after foreign forces withdraw, a suggestion Pakistan vehemently denies; the Afghan Taliban said they would not agree to American demands for a ceasefire as a condition for peace talks; joint Afghan and coalition forces reportedly killed three armed insurgents during operations; and a person wearing an Afghan National Army uniform killed an ISAF service member in Kabul. On Friday, NATO defense ministers discussed plans to balance security needs with budgets cuts that could potentially reduce the envisaged national army and police force by two-thirds. On Saturday, the White House announced it had received a letter last year purported to come directly from Taliban leader Mullah Omar asking the US to deliver militant prisoners. On Sunday, a car bomb exploded at a police headquarters in Kandahar, killing at least seven people; an American soldier reportedly shot and killed an Afghan guard at a base in the north he allegedly thought was about to attack him. On Monday, NATO forces announced that one of their helicopters crashed in eastern Afghanistan, with no casualties; and Afghan and foreign forces killed six alleged insurgents and detained 19 in Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, Daikundi and Khost provinces. On Tuesday, an employee of a private security firm reportedly killed three of his colleagues and two Afghan police officers and injured another five security guards in Kandahar. On Wednesday, a top American commander said that only one percent of Afghan police and soldiers were capable of operating independently raising further doubts about whether their forces will be able to take over security after the West withdraws.
  • Leaders of an unregistered opposition party in Kazakhstan were summoned to face the National Security Committee on Tuesday for unknown reasons, just a month after another one of their leaders was detained pending trial on charges of fomenting social hatred in Zhanaozen. On Thursday, police reportedly interrogated the deputy editor of an opposition newspaper and raided its offices in Almaty over her support for an arrested journalist.
  • The President of the Maldives resigned on Tuesday, after nearly three weeks of opposition-led protests ended in police mutiny. Protests were led by supporters of the former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. On Wednesday however, President Nasheed claims that his so-called “resignation” was forced at gunpoint, causing rioting, attacks on police stations and sparking a potentially fierce power-struggle coup.
  • Pakistan rejected a leaked NATO report that claimed Pakistani security forces were helping the Taliban and suggesting the group believes it is poised to regain power on Wednesday; while Pakistani fighter jets reportedly bombed militant hideouts near the Afghan border, killing dozens. On Thursday, the top court summoned PM Gilani to appear later this month over his refusal to pursue corruption cases against the President, announcing it intends to indict him on contempt charges; while the Foreign Minister said her country is ready to push the Taliban and other insurgent groups to enter negotiations to end the war in Afghanistan. On Friday, government officials alleged that militants opened fire on a security checkpoint, killing at least seven soldiers and wounding three more before Pakistani forces killed 18 militants in retaliation near the Afghan border; a homemade bomb exploded next to a house killing at least three people in Peshawar; another homemade bomb exploded outside a house in the Khyber region, killing one person and wounding two others; militants attacked a paramilitary checkpoint in Khyber region, killing a soldier, two militants and wounding two soldiers; and militants set off explosives at a girls’ school in the town of Dera Ismail Khan with no reported casualties. On Saturday, the Foreign Ministry announced that PM Gilani would be travelling to Qatar in the upcoming week for talks with leaders there on a peace deal to end the Taliban’s 10 year war in Afghanistan. On Sunday, a military convoy struck a roadside bomb in Islamabad, killing one soldier and wounded another 12. A suspected US drone has fired missiles near the Afghan border, killing 10 alleged Taliban insurgents on Wednesday; police in Peshawar reportedly detained more than 100 in raids on unregistered madrasahs or religious schools, with many local residents protesting their actions; PM Yusuf Raza Gilani appealed his summons by the Supreme Court to face indictment on contempt-of-court charges; unidentified attackers threw a hand grenade at a shop in Quetta wounding four people; gunmen on motorcycles shot and killed a local politician in the town of Chaman; militants set off a homemade bomb next to a police patrol in the village of Chinari, killing two policemen and wounding one; while officials in the military leadership announced they were holding talks with NATO and Afghan commanders to improve coordination along the Afghan border.
  • The United Kingdom is set to try and persuade the government of India to rethink its plans to buy Rafale fighter planes from France rather than UK-backed Eurofighter Typhoons on Wednesday. The most populous and politically important state, Uttar Pradesh, voted on Wednesday in the first of seven-phase elections for state assembly constituencies, with around a 62% turnout; while authorities decided to buy 126 fighter jets from France, received the delivery of a nuclear-powered submarine from Russia and prepared for its first aircraft carrier as it modernizes its military to try and keep the pace with China’s.
  • For the first time in 15 years, the ethnic Mon community in Myanmar/Burma was permitted by authorities to publicly celebrate their national day, just a week after a peace deal was struck between the Mon State party and the government. On Sunday, the election commission gave opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi approval to run in the upcoming parliamentary by-elections.
  • Gunmen seized a Dutch and Swiss tourist and their Filipino guide, holding them hostage in the southern Philippines on Wednesday. On Thursday, military force reported they had killed 15 alleged al-Qaeda linked militants in air strikes, including three leaders of the terrorist group Abu Sayyaf and Jemmaah Islamiyah. On Friday, the military said it was stepping up security as it was expecting revenge attacks for its airstrikes of the previous day.
  • Maoist former rebels in Nepal reportedly shed their uniforms on Friday and began to rejoin their families in the first step to their reintegration nearly five years after the official end of the civil war. The rehabilitation of more than 19,000 former rebels is seen as crucial for the stability of the country.
  • The United States temporarily waived a ban on providing military assistance to Uzbekistan because of their crucial role in transiting supplies to forces in Afghanistan, despite Human Rights Watch’s recent report calling the human rights situation in the country “appalling”.
  • North Korea backed away from an earlier vow to never deal with South Korea on Thursday, but demanded several preconditions for resuming talks, including the cancellation of US-South Korean military drills. Although some called the preconditions “unreasonable” other analysts suggested that they may actually be a good thing, showing that diplomacy may actually be possible under the new leadership. Kim Jong Un is allegedly followed by an inner circle of aging military advisors, as he steps into the role of “supreme commander” less than two months after the death of his father.

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